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North Carolina election odds — Senate, House, and governor race predictions

U.S. Midterms 2026

Senate, House, and governor races

426 races
229Dem
7 tossup
435 districts· 218 to control
Rep199
202
15
12
7
15
27
157

Odds breakdown — scroll for more →

highlighted = projected flip

Safe D (194)
CA-26
5
CA-22
90-10
NH-01
90-9
CA-45
91-9
NM-02
91-9
MD-06
93-10
CA-01
92-8
MI-08
93-9
MN-02
94-10
NV-04
90-6
NE-02
94-9
RI-02
93-8
VA-07
90-5
MI-03
94-8
NY-05
93-7
NY-03
92-6
CA-21
94-8
NH-02
95-9
NY-04
92-5
CA-27
94-7
AZ-04
95-9
MD-05
92-5
OR-01
91-4
NV-01
93-6
NY-18
95-8
CA-39
92-5
PA-17
92-4
PA-12
96-8
NJ-09
94-6
GA-02
92-4
IL-01
94-5
CA-46
98-9
SC-06
93-4
WA-08
94-6
NJ-05
94-5
IL-09
95-6
CA-13
94-5
CO-02
97-8
KS-03
98-9
TX-29
95-6
NY-06
94-5
NY-14
98-8
NJ-12
96-6
OH-13
95-5
NV-03
95-5
NM-03
95-5
CA-33
94-4
FL-20
97-7
NY-22
95-5
NC-12
95-5
CA-09
92-2
MO-05
95-4
NY-19
96-6
ME-01
94-3
TX-37
92-1
IL-13
98-7
NY-08
95-4
NY-25
96-5
OR-05
96-4
CA-18
95-4
PA-04
94-3
VT-01
95-3
CA-47
94-3
CA-50
95-3
FL-10
94-2
MD-04
92-0
CA-03
96-4
CA-36
93-1
WA-09
97-5
CA-43
98-6
FL-23
96-4
NY-09
95-3
NY-15
95-3
GA-05
96-4
IL-11
93-1
WI-04
98-6
MN-05
97-4
CA-30
98-6
IL-17
95-2
CT-02
96-4
IL-03
98-5
VA-08
95-2
VA-04
96-3
HI-02
97-5
NY-07
98-5
VA-10
97-4
CA-15
98-5
IN-01
95-2
MS-02
95-2
GA-04
98-5
NM-01
95-2
AZ-07
100-7
CA-06
94-1
MD-03
98-5
TX-07
96-3
NY-13
98-5
NY-26
98-5
CA-31
96-3
IL-02
97-4
MA-04
98-4
IN-07
98-4
MI-11
97-3
CA-10
96-2
IL-05
97-3
TX-20
98-4
MA-09
98-4
MD-02
98-4
NJ-11
94-0
IL-06
99-5
CA-49
96-2
CT-05
95-1
HI-01
97-3
MI-06
98-4
MN-04
96-2
NY-10
99-5
PA-06
99-5
CA-35
98-3
IL-10
97-3
MD-07
100-6
WA-06
98-4
CA-42
98-4
GA-13
98-4
NJ-06
97-2
CA-41
97-2
CA-51
98-3
DE-01
95-0
NY-12
99-4
CA-32
97-3
NC-02
97-2
CA-17
99-4
CT-03
96-2
AL-07
98-4
IL-04
97-2
NY-16
98-3
MA-08
100-5
CO-01
98-3
OH-03
99-4
OR-04
97-2
WI-02
95-0
CT-01
98-3
NJ-01
98-3
OR-06
97-2
CO-06
97-1
NJ-03
98-3
NJ-08
96-1
CA-28
97-1
FL-24
97-1
MO-01
99-4
WA-07
98-2
MA-01
98-2
NJ-10
100-4
NC-04
100-4
CO-07
97-1
CT-04
99-4
UT-01
98-2
CA-08
98-2
CA-38
98-2
KY-03
98-2
NY-20
98-2
CA-25
98-2
IL-14
98-2
CA-44
97-1
TX-16
98-1
MA-05
97-0
CA-24
98-1
RI-01
99-3
WA-01
99-2
PA-02
100-3
TX-30
98-2
OR-03
100-3
IL-07
98-0
PA-05
99-1
MA-02
98-0
GA-06
98-0
MA-03
98-0
PA-03
99-1
MN-03
99-1
LA-02
99-1
WA-10
99-1
WA-02
99-1
CA-16
100-2
VA-11
99-0
CA-19
100-1
MA-07
99-0
MI-13
99-0
TX-33
99-0
CA-02
99-0
MA-06
100-1
VA-03
100-0
AZ-03
100-1
MD-08
100-0
TX-18
100-0
MI-12
100-0
OH-11
100-0
Likely D (15)
IA-01
76-30
IA-03
75-28
OH-07
76-23
PA-10
78-25
CO-08
78-24
TX-34
76-22
NJ-07
80-22
VA-02
83-18
AZ-06
83-17
TX-28
84-18
OH-01
85-15
CA-52
79-5
CA-48
88-10
WA-03
89-10
IL-08
88-5
Lean D (12)
TX-15
62-39
NY-17
61-36
NC-01
64-38
NC-11
65-38
MI-10
65-37
PA-08
65-34
FL-14
67-33
OH-09
70-32
AZ-01
72-32
WI-03
72-29
PA-07
74-28
FL-25
74-27
Tossup (7)
MI-07
52-48
MI-04
48-55
IA-02
54-45
TX-35
56-44
ME-02
42-56
FL-22
41-58
VA-01
41-58
Lean R (15)
PA-01
44-62
FL-09
37-64
MT-01
36-65
WI-01
35-67
CO-03
33-67
CO-04
32-67
MO-02
31-66
TX-23
34-69
FL-07
32-69
AL-02
31-69
SC-01
28-67
CO-05
28-71
AZ-02
27-72
FL-13
28-73
NV-02
27-74
Likely R (27)
NY-01
27-75
KY-06
24-76
NY-21
23-75
FL-27
22-78
OH-15
21-79
NC-09
23-83
MN-01
21-82
AR-02
19-84
FL-16
19-84
WA-05
16-82
IN-05
16-83
OH-10
15-84
VA-05
16-85
AZ-08
18-88
TX-32
15-86
FL-04
17-89
FL-11
12-84
NC-07
14-87
NY-02
13-87
TX-09
14-88
NC-03
13-88
FL-12
12-88
NC-13
11-88
OK-04
10-88
WI-08
10-89
AK-01
6-85
OH-08
9-89
Safe R (156)
NJ-02
14-90
TN-09
13-91
MN-08
12-90
AR-03
20-99
TN-05
11-90
NC-06
11-91
FL-02
10-90
FL-05
10-90
NC-14
11-91
OK-05
11-92
NY-11
9-90
TX-22
12-93
FL-26
9-91
FL-15
9-91
GA-01
10-93
CA-05
9-92
KS-02
7-90
TN-08
7-90
AZ-05
9-93
GA-14
7-91
PA-16
8-92
SC-02
8-93
TX-24
6-91
FL-21
7-92
NE-01
8-93
TX-10
6-92
NC-05
9-94
MO-06
8-93
NC-10
7-93
SC-05
7-93
FL-18
4-90
OH-14
8-94
OK-01
7-93
FL-28
9-96
VA-06
5-92
WV-02
8-94
UT-03
4-91
NC-08
6-93
FL-17
9-96
IL-12
9-96
OH-05
9-96
MI-01
7-95
MN-06
5-93
TX-02
7-95
MO-07
5-93
WI-07
7-95
GA-11
8-96
TX-04
6-94
FL-03
7-95
LA-04
3-91
WA-04
4-93
ID-02
9-98
IL-16
3-92
NY-24
6-95
GA-12
3-92
ND-01
5-94
WY-01
3-93
FL-08
6-95
FL-01
9-99
TX-31
5-95
TN-07
5-95
TX-25
5-95
NY-23
5-95
WI-06
2-92
TX-27
5-95
TX-21
3-93
TX-38
4-94
IN-06
8-98
AL-06
7-98
IN-03
7-98
IN-04
2-93
IN-08
6-97
KY-02
7-98
TX-36
5-95
TX-14
5-96
WV-01
6-97
GA-10
6-97
KY-04
5-96
SC-07
5-96
TX-12
4-95
FL-19
4-95
CA-23
5-96
MS-04
6-97
OK-03
6-98
OR-02
7-99
ID-01
6-98
TX-17
5-97
AZ-09
5-97
MS-03
6-98
TN-03
5-97
CA-20
4-96
IN-02
6-98
GA-07
3-96
MI-02
4-97
MI-05
2-95
MO-04
2-95
OH-02
4-97
OH-04
4-97
AL-04
1-94
KY-05
5-98
LA-06
2-95
SC-04
2-96
TX-06
2-96
IA-04
2-96
TX-01
4-97
SC-03
5-98
MO-03
3-97
PA-13
4-98
GA-09
2-96
KS-04
2-96
TX-19
1-95
MI-09
3-97
TX-11
3-97
VA-09
2-96
MS-01
2-96
OH-06
4-98
AL-03
3-97
MO-08
3-98
SD-01
3-98
TX-03
3-98
GA-08
3-98
IL-15
3-98
IN-09
2-97
MT-02
2-97
TN-01
3-98
FL-06
3-98
PA-15
2-97
TN-06
3-98
TX-13
2-97
WI-05
3-98
UT-04
2-97
AR-04
3-98
MN-07
2-98
OH-12
2-97
PA-14
2-98
TX-05
2-98
UT-02
1-96
AL-05
2-98
MD-01
2-98
AR-01
4-99
LA-05
2-98
NJ-04
2-98
PA-09
2-98
KS-01
2-98
LA-01
2-98
TN-04
2-98
GA-03
2-98
KY-01
2-98
LA-03
2-98
TN-02
2-98
TX-08
2-98
TX-26
2-98
AL-01
2-98
OK-02
1-98
PA-11
2-99
NE-03
0-100