Election Odds Powered by Kalshi
Powered by KalshiWA-10 primary: who will advance?·Marilyn Strickland·2%(-95%)AK-AL primary: Who will advance?·Nicholas Begich·2%(-94%)CA-49 primary: Who will advance?·Mike Levin·1%(-93.5%)Massachusetts's 5th District margin of victory·Democrats, 39+ pts·93%(+93%)NY-14 Democratic nominee?·Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez·95%(+93%)FL-04 Republican nominee?·Aaron Bean·2%(-92%)MI-01 Republican nominee?·Jack Bergman·2%(-92%)VA-05 Republican nominee?·John McGuire·2%(-92%)FL-05 Republican nominee?·John Rutherford·2%(-91%)FL-15 Republican nominee?·Laurel Lee·2%(-91%)FL-27 Republican nominee?·Maria Elvira Salazar·2%(-91%)MI-04 Democratic nominee?·Sean McCann·2%(-91%)MI-08 Republican nominee?·Amir Hassan·2%(-91%)MN-07 Democratic nominee?·Erik Osberg·2%(-91%)Mississippi Governor winner? (2027)·Republican·0.2%(-90.9%)

Texas election odds — senate, house, and governor race predictions

U.S. Midterms 2026

Senate, House, and governor races by state

8315 races
198Dem
36 tossup
435 districts· 218 to control
Rep201
45
109
44
36
40
94
67

Odds breakdown — scroll for more →

highlighted = projected flip

Safe D (45)
CA-05
7-8
LA-04
1-2
SC-02
3-6
FL-19
1-6
MO-03
0-6
MO-07
2-8
NC-09
3-9
FL-28
1-8
TN-06
0-8
OH-12
0-8
IN-03
0-8
PA-09
0-9
IN-06
0-9
KY-02
0-10
CA-03
90-9
FL-20
91-6
IL-08
92-5
CA-14
92-5
CA-15
90-1
NH-02
90-0
VA-07
90-0
WI-02
92-2
WA-09
92-2
TX-20
91-0
MN-05
91-0
CO-02
91-0
CA-47
94-3
WA-10
92-0
VA-08
92-0
CA-01
92-0
IL-13
93-1
CT-05
93-0
NC-04
93-0
HI-01
93-0
CA-49
93-0
MA-02
94-0
NJ-12
94-0
NY-20
95-0
GA-05
95-0
WI-04
96-1
ME-01
96-0
TX-30
96-0
IL-02
96-0
MA-05
97-0
NY-13
98-0
Likely D (109)
TX-17
15-16
FL-04
9-11
FL-02
7-11
SD-01
7-11
ID-02
7-12
TX-31
6-12
OK-05
5-11
FL-05
5-11
TN-08
5-11
TX-10
4-12
FL-12
4-12
TX-27
3-11
UT-04
1-11
PA-11
1-11
OH-14
1-11
IL-16
1-11
TX-22
0-11
OH-05
0-11
KY-01
0-11
TX-19
0-11
TX-01
0-11
NC-03
3-14
PA-13
0-11
OK-03
0-11
IN-08
0-11
GA-08
0-11
AR-03
0-13
LA-01
0-13
IL-12
0-13
TN-07
1-14
OH-02
2-15
TX-08
0-14
TN-02
0-14
PA-14
0-14
FL-06
2-16
TX-06
1-15
OK-04
0-15
GA-03
0-15
FL-08
2-17
SC-05
1-16
TX-13
0-16
FL-21
3-19
MN-07
0-17
FL-07
0-17
AR-04
0-17
TX-02
1-18
TX-26
0-18
OK-02
0-18
TX-05
0-19
TX-12
1-20
TN-03
0-21
TX-25
1-25
WA-03
76-21
MI-10
76-20
NJ-07
78-21
NE-02
78-20
NV-03
79-18
AZ-06
79-18
CA-21
78-16
NY-19
80-15
FL-23
82-12
MS-02
84-13
MI-07
81-10
CA-48
78-5
IN-01
82-9
NH-01
84-10
UT-01
82-7
CA-33
76-0
CA-45
77-1
PA-02
77-0
OH-13
87-10
VA-02
79-2
MI-08
88-10
LA-02
86-6
IL-10
80-0
CA-17
82-0
MN-02
89-7
CO-06
83-0
AZ-04
85-2
OR-05
84-1
CA-35
84-0
IL-17
89-5
PA-17
85-0
MA-04
85-0
MA-03
85-0
CA-50
85-0
VA-04
85-0
TX-16
85-0
PA-04
85-0
PA-03
85-0
GA-06
85-0
CT-01
85-0
NJ-11
86-0
MN-04
86-0
PA-12
86-0
NV-04
86-0
CA-41
86-0
OH-03
86-0
NY-12
86-0
NY-09
86-0
NC-12
86-0
MA-07
86-0
GA-02
87-1
MD-02
87-0
IL-04
87-0
FL-24
87-0
CA-12
88-0
NJ-03
89-1
KS-03
89-1
Lean D (44)
IA-03
60-35
TX-04
2-27
AZ-09
0-26
WV-01
7-33
NY-17
61-34
WI-03
62-34
MI-02
0-30
FL-01
0-34
AZ-01
66-30
FL-25
69-31
MS-01
0-40
CO-08
68-28
PA-10
68-27
PA-07
70-26
TX-34
69-25
IA-01
63-13
NM-02
74-17
OH-01
61-2
MD-08
61-0
TX-33
61-0
CA-19
61-0
MD-05
61-0
RI-02
61-0
WA-06
61-0
VT-01
61-0
PA-06
61-0
MD-04
61-0
DE-01
61-0
AL-07
70-9
NM-01
62-0
GA-13
62-0
CA-24
64-0
NY-25
65-0
IL-11
65-0
NY-06
67-0
NY-16
69-0
NY-05
69-0
NY-08
71-0
NJ-10
71-0
MD-03
71-0
CA-13
72-0
NY-14
74-0
CA-32
74-0
OR-03
74-0
Tossup (36)
CA-22
26-28
IA-02
47-50
VA-01
49-46
FL-14
47-50
FL-22
52-46
OH-09
45-51
PA-01
44-52
NC-01
53-42
ME-02
43-56
TX-35
41-56
TX-15
41-56
PA-08
55-39
MT-01
39-59
OH-07
39-59
MN-06
12-38
NC-06
9-42
NJ-02
24-58
TX-28
52-13
MI-05
3-42
FL-18
1-43
VA-05
14-58
CA-02
45-0
FL-10
46-0
CO-03
0-48
AL-03
0-48
MO-08
1-49
NY-15
49-1
CA-28
51-1
NC-05
0-51
TX-18
52-0
WA-01
52-0
MD-06
53-1
CA-46
54-0
AL-05
0-54
MD-01
1-56
AL-04
0-57
Lean R (40)
FL-09
38-61
MI-04
36-60
NJ-08
31-1
MI-13
32-0
CO-05
32-66
OR-06
35-0
SC-06
32-67
MN-01
32-67
NY-01
30-68
AL-02
29-67
CA-16
39-0
FL-27
30-69
CO-04
23-65
MN-08
27-70
MI-01
27-71
MO-05
26-71
AZ-02
15-62
FL-13
24-72
CA-40
24-72
SC-01
24-73
NY-21
24-73
TX-24
23-74
WA-05
22-74
NV-02
5-60
IN-05
8-64
AZ-05
17-74
LA-06
6-66
LA-03
0-61
SC-03
0-61
MS-04
0-61
AZ-08
8-70
PA-16
2-65
NC-07
3-68
GA-07
3-68
GA-14
0-66
IL-15
0-67
OH-06
4-71
KY-06
3-70
WI-07
5-73
TX-38
1-70
Likely R (94)
WI-01
24-24
FL-15
21-11
VA-11
11-0
CA-34
11-0
VA-03
11-0
MA-09
11-0
MA-01
11-0
MA-08
11-0
TX-29
11-0
RI-01
11-0
MI-06
11-0
IL-14
11-0
IL-07
11-0
IL-06
11-0
IL-05
11-0
CO-07
11-0
CA-44
11-0
FL-26
16-5
WA-02
12-0
OR-01
12-0
MD-07
12-0
GA-04
12-0
CA-07
13-0
CA-37
13-0
CA-06
13-0
NC-11
22-9
OR-04
13-0
CA-25
15-1
NY-26
15-0
IL-03
15-0
PA-05
16-0
NJ-09
18-1
NJ-06
18-0
NY-07
18-0
KY-03
18-0
CA-39
18-0
CA-38
19-0
MI-11
22-3
MO-01
20-0
CA-43
21-0
NY-10
21-0
AZ-07
21-0
CO-01
22-0
NY-03
23-1
CA-10
24-0
OH-15
23-76
FL-16
21-76
TX-23
21-77
MO-02
19-78
OH-10
20-79
TX-09
20-80
NY-02
18-78
TX-32
18-79
TN-05
19-80
GA-12
17-80
NC-14
17-80
VA-06
15-79
AK-01
14-80
AR-02
16-83
TX-21
15-82
WI-05
14-83
GA-01
14-83
NE-01
10-79
KY-04
14-84
NY-24
14-85
FL-17
13-84
WI-08
7-78
WA-04
12-85
TX-14
2-75
NY-23
11-85
OH-08
11-86
GA-11
11-86
TX-36
2-77
TX-03
1-76
NY-11
10-86
NC-08
1-77
AL-06
0-77
WI-06
5-82
FL-03
1-78
UT-03
10-87
IN-02
10-89
UT-02
7-86
MO-06
0-80
ND-01
7-89
OH-04
0-82
TN-09
1-83
TX-11
0-83
KS-04
3-86
OK-01
2-85
NC-13
2-85
IA-04
0-85
MT-02
0-85
KS-02
2-87
MO-04
0-86
Safe R (67)
FL-11
2-2
NY-04
1-1
NC-10
1-1
NY-22
1-0
NY-18
2-1
CA-27
2-0
VA-10
3-0
IN-04
9-6
NM-03
5-1
NC-02
7-2
NJ-05
6-1
CA-30
6-0
CA-51
6-0
MN-03
6-0
IL-01
6-0
AZ-03
6-0
WA-08
6-0
MI-03
7-1
HI-02
7-0
CA-52
7-0
CA-42
7-0
CA-31
7-0
TX-07
8-0
CA-11
8-0
CA-26
8-0
CA-04
8-0
MI-12
8-0
MA-06
8-0
WA-07
8-0
NJ-01
8-0
IL-09
8-0
NV-01
9-1
IN-07
9-1
CA-09
10-0
CT-03
10-0
CT-02
10-0
CA-29
10-0
CA-08
10-0
CT-04
10-0
CA-18
10-0
TX-37
10-0
OH-11
10-0
CA-36
10-0
CA-23
10-90
LA-05
6-92
VA-09
2-90
SC-07
1-90
GA-10
1-91
IN-09
0-90
NJ-04
0-90
GA-09
0-90
SC-04
1-91
NE-03
3-94
KS-01
0-91
WV-02
1-92
TN-04
3-94
MI-09
0-92
CA-20
0-92
AL-01
0-92
PA-15
0-93
OR-02
0-93
TN-01
0-94
MS-03
0-94
WY-01
1-96
AR-01
3-97
KY-05
0-95
ID-01
0-95