Congressional markets

2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?

4 options · Leads: D-House, D-Senate · Vol: $10.0M

47%

Which party will win the U.S. Senate?

2 options · Leads: Republican Party · Vol: $7.4M

53%

Which states will redistrict before the midterms?

25 options · Leads: California · Vol: $2.0M

+0.6%
97.9%

Blue wave in 2026?

1 option · Leads: Will Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House AND hold 49 or more seats in the Senate? · Vol: $377K

75%

2028: Who will win the Presidency, House, and Senate?

8 options · Leads: Democratic Sweep · Vol: $365K

+1%
56%

Blue tsunami in 2026?

1 option · Leads: Will Democrats hold 235 or more seats in the House AND hold 51 or more seats in the Senate? · Vol: $346K

43%

Will members of Congress be banned from trading stocks?

2 options · Leads: Before Jan 21, 2029 · Vol: $129K

33%

Who will run for public office in 2026?

9 options · Leads: Joe Kent · Vol: $109K

5.5%

How many reconciliation bills will be passed in 2026?

2 options · Leads: 1 · Vol: $98K

73%

Who will Bernie Sanders endorse before the midterms?

10 options · Leads: Charles Booker · Vol: $86K

62%

2026 Midterms: U.S. House turnout?

9 options · Leads: 120 to 124.99 million · Vol: $79K

31%

Who will testify in front of Congress in 2026?

13 options · Leads: Sam Altman · Vol: $74K

46%

When will the Senate vote on the Clarity Act?

2 options · Leads: Before Jan 1, 2027 · Vol: $73K

+4%
96%

Next Senate Democratic Leader?

10 options · Leads: Chris Murphy · Vol: $70K

-31%
21%

Will the midterms happen on time?

1 option · Leads: Will at least 50 states conduct 2026 U.S. House midterms on time? · Vol: $55K

+2%
93%

Will Republicans lose the House majority before the midterms?

1 option · Leads: Republican Party · Vol: $45K

-1.8%
2%

Chuck Schumer out as Senate Minority Leader?

1 option · Leads: Before Nov 3, 2026 · Vol: $42K

2.2%

Will the filibuster be weakened?

3 options · Leads: Before January 20, 2029 · Vol: $38K

31%

Will a new Constitutional Amendment be added during Trump's term?

1 option · Leads: During Trump's term · Vol: $38K

-1.2%
8.1%

Minnesota Governor-Senate combo

4 options · Leads: Democrats sweep · Vol: $33K

+1%
90%

How many Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?

8 options · Leads: Above 50 · Vol: $29K

39%

Which member of Congress will have the biggest returns in 2025?

10 options · Leads: Roger Williams · Vol: $29K

54%

Will Congress override Trump's veto?

2 options · Leads: Before Jan 20, 2029 · Vol: $27K

29%

119th Congress legislative combo

2 options · Leads: Legislating combo · Vol: $26K

15%

Will a Democratic Senator call for Schumer to step down as leader?

3 options · Leads: Before Jan 1, 2027 · Vol: $25K

-5%
45%

Who will AOC endorse?

3 options · Leads: Claire Valdez · Vol: $25K

73%

Will Trump publicly call for John Thune to step down as Senate Majority Leader?

2 options · Leads: Before Jan 1, 2027 · Vol: $25K

15%

Will Neal Dunn leave Congress before the midterms?

1 option · Leads: Will Neal Dunn leave Congress before the midterms? · Vol: $22K

10%

Will any member of Congress be expelled in 2026?

1 option · Leads: Before 2027 · Vol: $22K

9.9%

How many Elon-backed challengers will win seats in Congress in 2026?

10 options · Leads: At least 1 · Vol: $21K

19%

NRSC Cash on Hand (End of Q3)

6 options · Leads: Above $15M · Vol: $21K

98%

When will the House pass a reconciliation bill?

5 options · Leads: Before Dec 1, 2026 · Vol: $20K

29%

Generic Ballot: Democrats Up/Down (8/14-8/21)?

1 option · Leads: Above 6.8% · Vol: $17K

-4%
13%

Iowa Blue Wave Combo

1 option · Leads: Will the number of Iowa races won by the Democratic Party among IA-01, IA-02, IA-03, the U.S. Senate seat, and the Governorship during the November 3, 2026 general election be exactly 5? · Vol: $16K

-2%
18%

Who will Elon Musk back a primary against in 2026?

5 options · Leads: Steve Daines · Vol: $15K

9%

How many states will redistrict before the midterms?

7 options · Leads: 8 · Vol: $15K

28%

When will the PROMISE Act pass the Senate?

1 option · Leads: Before Oct 3, 2026 · Vol: $13K

1%

Will any America Party candidate be on a federal or gubernatorial ballot before 2027?

1 option · Leads: Before 2027 · Vol: $13K

8%

Which states will redistrict before the 2028 election?

11 options · Leads: Illinois · Vol: $12K

83%

Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?

5 options · Leads: Mike Lee · Vol: $12K

33%

California State Senate District 26 election winner

7 options · Leads: Sara Hernandez · Vol: $11K

81%

Iowa Governor-Senate combo

1 option · Leads: Zach Lahn and Josh Turek win · Vol: $11K

1%

When will the Senate vote on the SAVE America Act?

2 options · Leads: Before Oct 1, 2026 · Vol: $11K

+4%
24%

Will Trump impose term limits on Congress?

1 option · Leads: Before 2029 · Vol: $8K

7.2%

Elizabeth MacDonough departure announced?

1 option · Leads: Will Elizabeth MacDonough leave Parliamentarian of the United States Senate before Jan 1, 2027? · Vol: $8K

10%

Will Mamdani endorse outside of New York?

1 option · Leads: Will Zohran Mamdani endorse any candidate in any 2026 primary election for public office whose jurisdiction is outside of New York State before Sep 15, 2026? · Vol: $8K

-7%
7%

Will the House impeach a federal judge this year?

1 option · Leads: Before 2027 · Vol: $8K

6%

How many candidates endorsed by Justice Democrats will win their primaries?

5 options · Leads: Above 4 · Vol: $7K

96%

Will any independent or 3rd party candidate win a House or Senate race in 2026?

1 option · Leads: Will any independent or third-party candidate win an election in the U.S. House or Senate in 2026? · Vol: $6K

42%

How many Trump-endorsed candidates will lose their primaries?

4 options · Leads: 10 · Vol: $6K

+2%
28%

Kansas Governor-Senate combo

2 options · Leads: Democratic Governor, Republican Senator · Vol: $6K

21%

Red wave in 2026?

1 option · Leads: Red wave in 2026? · Vol: $5K

10%

Will the blue slip process be removed?

3 options · Leads: Before Jan 1, 2029 · Vol: $5K

43%

DSCC Cash on Hand (End of Q3)

6 options · Leads: Above $20M · Vol: $5K

-1%
82%

When will a reconciliation bill pass the Senate?

5 options · Leads: Before Jan 1, 2027 · Vol: $5K

29%

Will the Senate overrule the parliamentarian on budget reconciliation in 2026?

1 option · Leads: Before 2027 · Vol: $5K

9%

HMP Cash on Hand (End of Q3)

7 options · Leads: Above $80M · Vol: $4K

75%

Who will Obama endorse before the midterms?

4 options · Leads: Mary Peltola · Vol: $4K

77%

Who will be the next Senate Judiciary chair?

4 options · Leads: Sheldon Whitehouse · Vol: $4K

91%

Who will be the next DNC Chair?

34 options · Leads: Faiz Shakir · Vol: $4K

17%

How many DSA-endorsed candidates will win their primaries?

5 options · Leads: Above 2 · Vol: $4K

94%

DCCC Cash on Hand (End of Q3)

6 options · Leads: Above $30M · Vol: $3K

75%

How many AIPAC-endorsed candidates will lose their primaries?

1 option · Leads: At least 10 · Vol: $3K

-17%
19%

How many states will elect a governor and senator from different parties in 2026?

5 options · Leads: 3 · Vol: $3K

25%

Alaska at-large congressional district primary: Nick Begich vote percent

1 option · Leads: At least 40% · Vol: $3K

+19%
99%

Will Jasmine Crockett campaign for James Talarico?

1 option · Leads: Before Nov 3, 2026 · Vol: $2K

73%

Will a member of Congress resign or be expelled in Aug 2026?

1 option · Leads: Will any member of Congress be out as any member of Congress in Aug 2026? · Vol: $2K

1%

Wisconsin State Assembly winner?

2 options · Leads: Democratic party · Vol: $2K

75%

John Thune announces departure as Senate Majority Leader?

2 options · Leads: Before Oct 1, 2026 · Vol: $2K

6%

NRCC Cash on Hand (End of Q3)

7 options · Leads: Above $60M · Vol: $1K

83%

How many independents will be elected to Congress in the midterms?

2 options · Leads: At least 1 · Vol: $1K

37%

Will anyone else in Congress change parties in 2026?

1 option · Leads: Will anyone in Congress change parties? · Vol: $1K

30%

Will Congressional salaries increase?

4 options · Leads: Before Jan 1, 2030 · Vol: $363

52%

How many states will elect a governor and senator from different parties this year? (Directional)

7 options · Leads: At least 3 · Vol: $345

82%

Ken Martin out as DNC chair?

1 option · Leads: Before Dec 1, 2026 · Vol: $342

33%

Delaware margin of victory

3 options · Leads: Democrats, 13+ pts · Vol: $309

82%

Will Trump's impeachments be expunged?

2 options · Leads: Before Jan 1, 2027 · Vol: $261

11%

RNC Cash on Hand (End of Q3)

5 options · Leads: Above $85M · Vol: $189

83%

Congressional Progressive Caucus size after the midterms?

4 options · Leads: Above 110 · Vol: $20

14%

Michigan Supreme Court election winners?

2 options · Leads: 1 Democrat and 1 Republican · Vol: $9

7%

SLF Cash on Hand (End of Q3)

5 options · Leads: Above $175M · Vol: $7

68%