Congressional markets

2026 2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?

4 options · Leader: D-House, D-Senate

+1%
40%

Blue wave in 2026?

1 option · Leader: Will Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House AND hold 49 or more seats in the Senate?

72%

Which states will redistrict before the midterms?

25 options · Leader: Texas

98%

Will any member of Congress be expelled in 2026?

1 option · Leader: Before 2027

+1.1%
8.5%

2028: Who will win the Presidency, House, and Senate?

8 options · Leader: Democratic Sweep

-1%
46%

Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?

1 option · Leader: Angela Alsobrooks

+65%
65%

Which member of Congress will have the biggest returns in 2025?

10 options · Leader: Morgan McGarvey

34%

Will members of Congress be banned from trading stocks?

2 options · Leader: Before Jan 21, 2029

+5%
36%

Will a member of Congress resign or be expelled in Jul 2026?

1 option · Leader: Will any member of Congress be out as any member of Congress in Jul 2026?

-2%
9%

2026 2026 Midterms: U.S. House turnout?

9 options · Leader: 125 million and above

27%

Who will testify in front of Congress in 2026?

13 options · Leader: Anthony Fauci

80%

Will Republicans lose the House majority before the midterms?

1 option · Leader: Republican Party

+4.6%
10%

When will a reconciliation bill pass the Senate?

6 options · Leader: Before Dec 1, 2026

19%

Generic Ballot: Democrats Up/Down (7/3-7/10)?

1 option · Leader: Above 5.6%

-1%
73%

Blue tsunami in 2026?

1 option · Leader: Will Democrats hold 235 or more seats in the House AND hold 51 or more seats in the Senate?

+1%
36%

119th Congress legislative combo

2 options · Leader: Legislating combo

20%

When will the Senate vote on the SAVE America Act?

3 options · Leader: Before Nov 3, 2026

36%

How many Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?

7 options · Leader: Above 55

93%

Who will run for public office in 2026?

9 options · Leader: Matt Gaetz

+5.4%
12%

John Thune announces departure before the midterms?

1 option · Leader: Will the Senate Majority Leader resign before Nov 3, 2026?

-4%
2%

Will Mamdani endorse outside of New York?

1 option · Leader: Will Zohran Mamdani endorse any candidate in any 2026 primary election for public office whose jurisdiction is outside of New York State before Sep 15, 2026?

-3%
23%

Who will attend the 2026 White House Correspondents' Dinner?

1 option · Leader: John Thune

66%

Will Congress override Trump's veto?

3 options · Leader: Before Jan 20, 2029

29%

Will any independent or 3rd party candidate win a House or Senate race in 2026?

1 option · Leader: Will any independent or third-party candidate win an election in the U.S. House or Senate in 2026?

45%

Who will Donald Trump talk to in Jul 2026?

1 option · Leader: Hakeem Jeffries

10%

How many Trump-endorsed candidates will lose their primaries?

6 options · Leader: 7

17%

Who will Trump endorse in the 2026 primaries?

2 options · Leader: Marsha Blackburn

16%

Will Trump impose term limits on Congress?

1 option · Leader: Before 2029

7%

Will the House vote to ban members of Congress from trading stocks?

1 option · Leader: Before 2027

16%

Wisconsin State Assembly winner?

2 options · Leader: Democratic party

90%

Elizabeth MacDonough departure announced?

1 option · Leader: Will Elizabeth MacDonough leave Parliamentarian of the United States Senate before Jan 1, 2027?

20%

Who will be confirmed by the Senate before the August recess?

6 options · Leader: Brett Matsumoto

56%

Which states will redistrict before the 2028 election?

11 options · Leader: New York

74%

When will the House pass a reconciliation bill?

6 options · Leader: Before Jan 1, 2027

23%

How many reconciliation bills will be passed in 2026?

2 options · Leader: 1

82%

Will anyone else in Congress change parties in 2026?

1 option · Leader: Will anyone in Congress change parties?

19%

Will the Senate overrule the parliamentarian on budget reconciliation in 2026?

1 option · Leader: Before 2027

2%

Who will Obama endorse before the midterms?

5 options · Leader: Keisha Lance Bottoms

74%

How many states will redistrict before the midterms?

7 options · Leader: 9

43%

Who will be the next DNC Chair?

34 options · Leader: Martin O’Malley

16%

Who will Elon Musk back a primary against in 2026?

5 options · Leader: Steve Daines

9%

How many Elon-backed challengers will win seats in Congress in 2026?

8 options · Leader: At least 10

11%

Delaware margin of victory

3 options · Leader: Democrats, 13+ pts

82%

Will the midterms happen on time?

1 option · Leader: Will at least 50 states conduct 2026 U.S. House midterms on time?

91%

Will Neal Dunn leave Congress before the midterms?

1 option · Leader: Will Neal Dunn leave Congress before the midterms?

2%

How many candidates endorsed by Justice Democrats will win their primaries?

5 options · Leader: Above 3

68%

Will the House impeach a federal judge this year?

1 option · Leader: Before 2027

7.1%

How many states will elect a governor and senator from different parties in 2026?

5 options · Leader: 3

21%

Will the filibuster be weakened?

3 options · Leader: Before January 20, 2029

34%

Will Trump's impeachments be expunged?

2 options · Leader: Before Jan 1, 2027

7%

Who will AOC endorse?

6 options · Leader: Claire Valdez

87%

How many DSA-endorsed candidates will win their primaries?

5 options · Leader: Above 4

83%

Who will drop out of their primary?

1 option · Leader: James Fishback

14%

Will Jasmine Crockett campaign for James Talarico?

1 option · Leader: Before Nov 3, 2026

59%

Congressional Progressive Caucus size after the midterms?

4 options · Leader: Above 110

14%

Will a new Constitutional Amendment be added during Trump's term?

1 option · Leader: During Trump's term

8.6%

Will Congressional salaries increase?

4 options · Leader: Before Jan 1, 2030

47%

California State Senate District 26 election winner

7 options · Leader: Sara Hernandez

86%

Will the blue slip process be removed?

3 options · Leader: Before Jan 1, 2029

35%

Iowa Blue Wave Combo

1 option · Leader: Will the number of Iowa races won by the Democratic Party among IA-01, IA-02, IA-03, the U.S. Senate seat, and the Governorship during the November 3, 2026 general election be exactly 5?

19%

Who will Bernie Sanders endorse before the midterms?

15 options · Leader: Charles Booker

71%

Will any America Party candidate be on a federal or gubernatorial ballot before 2027?

1 option · Leader: Before 2027

6%

How many AIPAC-endorsed candidates will lose their primaries?

1 option · Leader: At least 10

44%